Perusing the Lines: 03.23.08

Once again I must apologize for my lack of attentiveness to the blog. Between fantasy baseball drafts, the Denver County Sheriff Department(they towed my truck, those bastards. Too long of an ugly story for here) and getting drunk and watching my NCAA Tourney bracket fall to pieces, I just haven't been getting around to typing.

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So let's begin by getting this NCAA Basketball regular season over with. My last picks were two Thursdays ago (oh, and throw St. Patty's weekend in to my list of excuses), and my slump continued. Mountaineers took out UConn, the Cardinal did as expected, and my gut check Ohiotucky match-up went to the Redhawks. Hence, 23-27-2. This is why you don't gamble kids, unless you have money to burn. Or you're smarter/luckier than me.

But I'm on a mission: to return to .500. That mission begins today.

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Yes Virginia (Tech), they are playing basketball on this fine Monday. Two Ohiotucky teams are in the NIT mix, and The Drunken Prophet likes them both:

California @ Ohio State (-7.0 MGM)

Since I can find no quality info on this match-up, we'll dig some up. First off, Cal was a pretty weak team this year, going 6-12 in Pac-10 play, and finishing with an RPI of 92, 53 spots below the Buckeyes. The Golden Bears do have a young stud in sophmore Ryan Anderson (6-10/240), and a couple of decent scorers at the guard position. But the offensive drop-off after that is dramatic.

This Buckeye squad as well lacks true depth, but they do have a more dominant starting five, and a few more options off the bench. This will be a true test for Koufos, who is matched up with Cal senior DeVon Hardin (6-11/250). He'll need to hit from the outside to keep the Golden Bears big-man out of the lane, allowing Lighty, Turner and Butler to attack the basket, and set up open looks for each other. Defensively, the Big KK will need help from Othello, and the under-appreciated Terwilliger, while they try to contain the aforementioned Anderson. But as long as our guards out-play Cal's, I think The OSU is in good shape

What may make the difference is a bit suprising, but explained well by the Buckeye's basketball blog of the Columbus Dispatch. Even though only 7000+ showed up for the opening round game, they were rowdy. Turns out these are the die-hard fans who dwell in the 400 sections, and this is their first opportunity to get up close to the action. Assuming the same this evening, the home-court edge should be tremendous. And let's not forget the chance for some more payback against Florida, who has made it to the Semi's.

Not to mention, if you were a kid living in Berkeley, after suffering through an average season, do you really care about a relatively meaningless game in Columbus? Buckeyes by 10.

Dayton @ Illinois State (-6.5 MGM)

Not a lot of time left to type, but I like the 61/2, and I like Wright! Freshman phenom Chris Wright will be back in action tonight, and I think he'll provide enough to cover the spread. The Flyers and Redbirds are 32 and 33 in the RPI, so the numbers say this should be close. Both are smallerish teams, with Dayton having a small advantage on the average of boards and points scored. Illinois State takes much better care of the ball, and forces on average 2.0 more turnovers per game. Hence, if Dayton can secure possessions and stay solid on D, they've got a shot at the upset.

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Hopefully, I'll get back to y'all on the flip-A.B.