Perusing the Lines: 03.29.08

Thursday's NCAA Basketball action got me back to within striking distance of my.500 goal, at 28-30-2. The Hilltoppers kept it close enough, and Xavier narrowly escaped with a OT win over the Mountaineers. So let's keep on riding those Ohiotucky longshot's...

Xavier vs. UCLA (-6.5 Bodog)

Gotta give it up for the X-men, going for their first Final Four. I actually don't like their chances as much as I do Louisville's in pulling off the upset, especially since they are playing in You-Clu's backyard (it's a pretty big backyard, but still). But if the V-Boys are giving me six-and-a-half, I'll take the Musketeers. Xavier's balanced attack should give the Bruins fits. Besides "The Love" (and I love me"The Love"), UCLA is outmatched at every position in my opinion. Their point guard, Darren Collison had a fine season, but the Pac-10 didn't have a defender at that position as tough as Stanley Burrell (actually Burrell plays the "2", but will be matched up on Colliison this one). Unless the other Bruins can step up (I'm talking to you Josh Shipp & Russell Westbrook, who each got 14 points against Western Kentucky, but only combined for 5 points squeeking by Texas A&M), Xavier has a darn good shot at knocking off this number one.


Louisville vs. North Carolina (-6.0)

That previous statement I made, about Louisville having a better chance for the upset, well I'm not so sure. The Tar Heels are truly playing in their own backyard, two hours from Chapel Hill. But I'm sticking with the Cardinals.

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I've heard/read from some sports pundits that the home court advantage given to the higher seeds is unfair. I disagree. Well, I agree that it is unfair, but screw "fairness", these teams deserve their destination. Tonight's "hosts" went 32-2 & 31-3 (UNC & YouClu respectively). If the 'Ville or X-Men pulled off this type of regular season record, they would have been rewarded accordingly (actually, they would have ended up in Detroit this year, which is in no way any kind of reward, but you get my gist). Furthermore, does anyone really want Carolina to play in Phoenix, or UCLA in Charlotte? That just seems silly.

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Just got back from a round of disc golf, and Xavier's already on (down by 3, actually, they've come out sloppy) so point being, David Padgett handles Tyler Hansbrough, Pitino outcoaches Willimas, the 'Ville by 3.

late-A.B.

Perusing the Lines: 03.27.08

I'm not happy with yesterday's 50/50 split, but I'll take it. Bradley was dominant as prognosticated, but once again I bet against my gut, and Ole Miss prevailed. Andy Kennedy proved he is the man, and will be coaching at a top-twenty institution (Indiana anyone?) sooner than later.

But let's find some tunes before we get to the picks. How 'bout an Allman Bros. set from 1972?

As for last night's Ohiotucky matchup: Dayton @ The OSU, I wanted no part of the action. I'm just prayin' the Buckeyes get another shot at Florida.

So let us begin with another Ohiotucky NCAA Basketball Final Four contender;

West Virginia (-1.0) vs. Xavier

The V-Boys are giving the Mountaineers the points? Fools, I tell ya; a bunch of silly fools! That's why my record to date is 26-30-2. But you gotta like the X-Men.

A) They know how to play against a Huggy-induced defense. The program has seen it for years, though Coach Miller only dealt with it his first two.

B) They've got a better team.

The Musketeers have had a bit of trouble early on in this year's Tourney experience, coming back from 10 points against Georgia, and holding off Purdue after the Boilermaker's took a one-point lead with less than six minutes left. Does this suggest a team that is bound to slip up, or a squad that knows how to rally under duress?

I'm obviously taking the latter. X-Men by six.

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I'd also like to give the Kentucky schools playing this evening my seal of approval (as ominous as that may be), but the V-Boys actually have the Cardinals favored. This I won't accept, which means I can't put money on the barrel.

Though I will throw a little dough on the Hilltoppers...

Western Kentucky vs. UCLA (-12.0)

Not much time to explain, but I say this game stays close. Classic Cinderelly gives it their all and comes out on the short end of the pumpkin(?). You-clu by six.

Thanks for comin'-A.B.

Perusing the Lines: 03.25.08

"Screw Experience" was the exact quote I used yesterday to conclude my flip-flopping. My gut said go with UMass, but the numbers told me Syracuse. Should have stuck with the gut. Add in Arizona State's meltdown at home against the Gators, and I'm back to 4-under .500 at 25-29-2.

Honestly, I wasn't as confident with these NCAA Basketball picks as I was with my Ohiotucky picks on Monday. Just hoping to go on a roll, and I'm running out of time on my quest to break even. So I'm going with the following prognostications, the latter I like more than the former.

Mississippi at Virginia Tech (-8.0)

Andy Kennedy has built a solid squad in the Deep South, and The Rebels are a deeper, more physical team. But they are terrible on the road. Ole Miss went 1-7 as the visiting team in SEC play. V Tech only lost two home games all year, both in conference play. Advantage, Hokies. They win by 10.

Bradley at Virginia (-6.5)

This one we're giving lock status; take the money-line, I don't need the points. The Bradley Braves are going to win this outright. UVA is not a good team. They went 5-11 in conference, and though they somehow beat Arizona early on in the regular season, their second best win was a lucky two-point victory at Georgia Tech. Bradley beat Drake twice, and just beat up two Ohiotucky schools, UC and Ohio, to make it to the CBI semis. In comparison, The Cavs barely got by Richmond and Old Dominion. Bet the farm on the Braves, kids!

Hope you'll stop by tomorrow, we'll check the lines of the Big Dance.
-A.B.

Perusing the Lines: 03.24.08

A lotta love from the Ohiotucky yesterday. Ohio State blew the doors off Cal, and Dayton beat the spread by 13. That's puts this season's NCAA Basketball prognosticating record at 25-27-2. Let's see if we can get to .500.

Massachusetts @ Syracuse (-7.5 Sportsbook.com)

We're going with experience over size. Two of the Minutemen's three leading scorer's are seniors, led by Gary Forbes near 20 points a game. Two of the Orange's three leading scorer's are freshman, and both are over 6-9. Donte Greene, at 6-11, is averaging 17.7/7.1, and will need to be double-teamed if UMass has a chance. They don't have to stop him, just contain him.

These two teams met previously in a serious shoot-out, with UMass prevailing 107-100. But this was early in the season, and both teams have rolled upon some rocky roads since then. The Minutemen will once again try to instill this tempo to counter the size deficiency, and though they may not prevail, I think the senior leadership keeps this close. A least I hope so. Maryland sure couldn't do it, losing by 14 at the Carrier Dome last Thursday. And their roster looks identical to the Minutemen. And Pomeroy has UMass 10 slots below the Terps, and 'Cuse +25? Wait a minute...

I'm flip-flopping. The Orange by 10. Screw experience.

Florida @ Arizona State (-3.5)

I hate to bet against the Gators, for purely personal reasons. The Drunken Prophet wants to see the Buckeyes whip them again this season. The revenge doesn't nearly make up for the two National Championship shellackings put on The OSU, but it makes me feel better.

But I can't bet against Herb Sendek at home. The first year coach has willed the Sun Devils to their first respectable season in years, and they have something to prove. Both teams feature young talent, but the duo of James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph should take care of the Gators in Tempe. ASU by 6.

Check back with y'all tomorrow-A.B.

Perusing the Lines: 03.23.08

Once again I must apologize for my lack of attentiveness to the blog. Between fantasy baseball drafts, the Denver County Sheriff Department(they towed my truck, those bastards. Too long of an ugly story for here) and getting drunk and watching my NCAA Tourney bracket fall to pieces, I just haven't been getting around to typing.

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So let's begin by getting this NCAA Basketball regular season over with. My last picks were two Thursdays ago (oh, and throw St. Patty's weekend in to my list of excuses), and my slump continued. Mountaineers took out UConn, the Cardinal did as expected, and my gut check Ohiotucky match-up went to the Redhawks. Hence, 23-27-2. This is why you don't gamble kids, unless you have money to burn. Or you're smarter/luckier than me.

But I'm on a mission: to return to .500. That mission begins today.

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Yes Virginia (Tech), they are playing basketball on this fine Monday. Two Ohiotucky teams are in the NIT mix, and The Drunken Prophet likes them both:

California @ Ohio State (-7.0 MGM)

Since I can find no quality info on this match-up, we'll dig some up. First off, Cal was a pretty weak team this year, going 6-12 in Pac-10 play, and finishing with an RPI of 92, 53 spots below the Buckeyes. The Golden Bears do have a young stud in sophmore Ryan Anderson (6-10/240), and a couple of decent scorers at the guard position. But the offensive drop-off after that is dramatic.

This Buckeye squad as well lacks true depth, but they do have a more dominant starting five, and a few more options off the bench. This will be a true test for Koufos, who is matched up with Cal senior DeVon Hardin (6-11/250). He'll need to hit from the outside to keep the Golden Bears big-man out of the lane, allowing Lighty, Turner and Butler to attack the basket, and set up open looks for each other. Defensively, the Big KK will need help from Othello, and the under-appreciated Terwilliger, while they try to contain the aforementioned Anderson. But as long as our guards out-play Cal's, I think The OSU is in good shape

What may make the difference is a bit suprising, but explained well by the Buckeye's basketball blog of the Columbus Dispatch. Even though only 7000+ showed up for the opening round game, they were rowdy. Turns out these are the die-hard fans who dwell in the 400 sections, and this is their first opportunity to get up close to the action. Assuming the same this evening, the home-court edge should be tremendous. And let's not forget the chance for some more payback against Florida, who has made it to the Semi's.

Not to mention, if you were a kid living in Berkeley, after suffering through an average season, do you really care about a relatively meaningless game in Columbus? Buckeyes by 10.

Dayton @ Illinois State (-6.5 MGM)

Not a lot of time left to type, but I like the 61/2, and I like Wright! Freshman phenom Chris Wright will be back in action tonight, and I think he'll provide enough to cover the spread. The Flyers and Redbirds are 32 and 33 in the RPI, so the numbers say this should be close. Both are smallerish teams, with Dayton having a small advantage on the average of boards and points scored. Illinois State takes much better care of the ball, and forces on average 2.0 more turnovers per game. Hence, if Dayton can secure possessions and stay solid on D, they've got a shot at the upset.

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Hopefully, I'll get back to y'all on the flip-A.B.

Perusing the Lines: Championship Week 03/13/08

This is where it starts to get good, kids. NCAA basketball conference tourneys are now in full swing, and the action is aplenty. But what do the V-Boys have to offer to improve my record of 22-25-2? We're truly perusing the spreads, since there are some interesting variations between the various lines posted on the Vegas Insider site.

West Virginia vs. Connecticut (-2.0 MGM Mirage)

I'm using the closest spread available since I'm picking the favorite. UConn has been on a serious roll, winning 13 of their last 15, and is a hot sleeper to make a run to the Elite Eight. WVU has been the epitome of inconsistency this season, especially that 62-39 loss to my pathetic Bearcats. The Mountaineers have probably won enough to get a seat at the table (and get beat in the first round of the Tourney), but I guarantee Huggins isn't letting his team believe the hype. But motivation only gets you so far. The Huskies have superior talent, and you have to give Calhoun the nod as far as in-game adjustments. I hate betting against Huggy-Bear, but I think it's going to be next year, when his recruits show up, that the Mountaineers really make some noise.

Arizona vs. Stanford (-2.5 Ceasers)

I'm taking the favorite once again. Those two twins should make this game tough for the Wildcats underneath the boards, and unless Arizona makes some serious shots from the perimeter, this game could get ugly. The Cardinal had been playing with a chip on its beak, until they got swept by the LA institutions. UA lost a much needed game to the Ducks to remain squarely on the bubble despite their number one SOS. Hence both are hungry, I just gotta go with the bigs in this one.

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And let's pick the Ohiotucky match-up of the day. Wait, Xavier already defeated Dayton. So how about some MAC action...

Ohio vs. Miami (OH) (-1.5 LV Hilton)

Straight Gut Call. Both teams are as evenly matched as their conference records (9-7). The illustrious Pomeroy has the Redhawks 12 points higher in his rankings. But I like the Bobcats, and this is strickly based on their Bracketbuster performance I witnessed against George Mason, and the fact they have a skinny white boy named Bubba as their third leading scorer.

Talk to you all tomorrow-A.B.

Purusing the Lines:03/012/08: Championship Week

No love from the V-Boys. I've scrolled up and down the spreads and no line feels like the real thing. I want to believe Cincy won't lose by 9, and that Cal should beat UW by more than 2. You'd hope the pathetic Beavers wouldn't lose by 19, and Miami (OH) could take care of Buffalo by 10. But I hate all this action if I'm placing money on the barrel.

So let's take a look at yesterday's picks...

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Cleveland State broke my heart, and bank account, with the 15 point loss to Butler. But you can't prognosticate injuries, and the loss of Cedric Jackson for the second half cost me the spread. Jackson was (and we have to use the past tense, 'cause there is no chance CSU breaks the bubble, even though they showed up second in a very prominsing Horizon league) the Vikings second leading scorer and rebounder. That's easily five points lost right there. That's why they call it gambling.

Western Kentucky took care of business, gaining the Sun Belt Auto-bid, a chance to take on a three-seed that will probably destroy them, and at least getting me to .500 on the day. I wish the best for the Hilltoppers, but a run in the NCAA Basketball tourney is not expected by the Prophet. But keep an eye on Southern Alabam'. If they get matched up with a run-and-gun teams (aka Duke in the second round), the Jags may play in the Sweet Sixteen