Thursday's NCAA Basketball action got me back to within striking distance of my.500 goal, at 28-30-2. The Hilltoppers kept it close enough, and Xavier narrowly escaped with a OT win over the Mountaineers. So let's keep on riding those Ohiotucky longshot's...
Xavier vs. UCLA (-6.5 Bodog)
Gotta give it up for the X-men, going for their first Final Four. I actually don't like their chances as much as I do Louisville's in pulling off the upset, especially since they are playing in You-Clu's backyard (it's a pretty big backyard, but still). But if the V-Boys are giving me six-and-a-half, I'll take the Musketeers. Xavier's balanced attack should give the Bruins fits. Besides "The Love" (and I love me"The Love"), UCLA is outmatched at every position in my opinion. Their point guard, Darren Collison had a fine season, but the Pac-10 didn't have a defender at that position as tough as Stanley Burrell (actually Burrell plays the "2", but will be matched up on Colliison this one). Unless the other Bruins can step up (I'm talking to you Josh Shipp & Russell Westbrook, who each got 14 points against Western Kentucky, but only combined for 5 points squeeking by Texas A&M), Xavier has a darn good shot at knocking off this number one.
Louisville vs. North Carolina (-6.0)
That previous statement I made, about Louisville having a better chance for the upset, well I'm not so sure. The Tar Heels are truly playing in their own backyard, two hours from Chapel Hill. But I'm sticking with the Cardinals.
###
I've heard/read from some sports pundits that the home court advantage given to the higher seeds is unfair. I disagree. Well, I agree that it is unfair, but screw "fairness", these teams deserve their destination. Tonight's "hosts" went 32-2 & 31-3 (UNC & YouClu respectively). If the 'Ville or X-Men pulled off this type of regular season record, they would have been rewarded accordingly (actually, they would have ended up in Detroit this year, which is in no way any kind of reward, but you get my gist). Furthermore, does anyone really want Carolina to play in Phoenix, or UCLA in Charlotte? That just seems silly.
#####
Just got back from a round of disc golf, and Xavier's already on (down by 3, actually, they've come out sloppy) so point being, David Padgett handles Tyler Hansbrough, Pitino outcoaches Willimas, the 'Ville by 3.
late-A.B.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Perusing the Lines: 03.27.08
I'm not happy with yesterday's 50/50 split, but I'll take it. Bradley was dominant as prognosticated, but once again I bet against my gut, and Ole Miss prevailed. Andy Kennedy proved he is the man, and will be coaching at a top-twenty institution (Indiana anyone?) sooner than later.
But let's find some tunes before we get to the picks. How 'bout an Allman Bros. set from 1972?
As for last night's Ohiotucky matchup: Dayton @ The OSU, I wanted no part of the action. I'm just prayin' the Buckeyes get another shot at Florida.
So let us begin with another Ohiotucky NCAA Basketball Final Four contender;
West Virginia (-1.0) vs. Xavier
The V-Boys are giving the Mountaineers the points? Fools, I tell ya; a bunch of silly fools! That's why my record to date is 26-30-2. But you gotta like the X-Men.
A) They know how to play against a Huggy-induced defense. The program has seen it for years, though Coach Miller only dealt with it his first two.
B) They've got a better team.
The Musketeers have had a bit of trouble early on in this year's Tourney experience, coming back from 10 points against Georgia, and holding off Purdue after the Boilermaker's took a one-point lead with less than six minutes left. Does this suggest a team that is bound to slip up, or a squad that knows how to rally under duress?
I'm obviously taking the latter. X-Men by six.
###
I'd also like to give the Kentucky schools playing this evening my seal of approval (as ominous as that may be), but the V-Boys actually have the Cardinals favored. This I won't accept, which means I can't put money on the barrel.
Though I will throw a little dough on the Hilltoppers...
Western Kentucky vs. UCLA (-12.0)
Not much time to explain, but I say this game stays close. Classic Cinderelly gives it their all and comes out on the short end of the pumpkin(?). You-clu by six.
Thanks for comin'-A.B.
But let's find some tunes before we get to the picks. How 'bout an Allman Bros. set from 1972?
As for last night's Ohiotucky matchup: Dayton @ The OSU, I wanted no part of the action. I'm just prayin' the Buckeyes get another shot at Florida.
So let us begin with another Ohiotucky NCAA Basketball Final Four contender;
West Virginia (-1.0) vs. Xavier
The V-Boys are giving the Mountaineers the points? Fools, I tell ya; a bunch of silly fools! That's why my record to date is 26-30-2. But you gotta like the X-Men.
A) They know how to play against a Huggy-induced defense. The program has seen it for years, though Coach Miller only dealt with it his first two.
B) They've got a better team.
The Musketeers have had a bit of trouble early on in this year's Tourney experience, coming back from 10 points against Georgia, and holding off Purdue after the Boilermaker's took a one-point lead with less than six minutes left. Does this suggest a team that is bound to slip up, or a squad that knows how to rally under duress?
I'm obviously taking the latter. X-Men by six.
###
I'd also like to give the Kentucky schools playing this evening my seal of approval (as ominous as that may be), but the V-Boys actually have the Cardinals favored. This I won't accept, which means I can't put money on the barrel.
Though I will throw a little dough on the Hilltoppers...
Western Kentucky vs. UCLA (-12.0)
Not much time to explain, but I say this game stays close. Classic Cinderelly gives it their all and comes out on the short end of the pumpkin(?). You-clu by six.
Thanks for comin'-A.B.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Perusing the Lines: 03.25.08
"Screw Experience" was the exact quote I used yesterday to conclude my flip-flopping. My gut said go with UMass, but the numbers told me Syracuse. Should have stuck with the gut. Add in Arizona State's meltdown at home against the Gators, and I'm back to 4-under .500 at 25-29-2.
Honestly, I wasn't as confident with these NCAA Basketball picks as I was with my Ohiotucky picks on Monday. Just hoping to go on a roll, and I'm running out of time on my quest to break even. So I'm going with the following prognostications, the latter I like more than the former.
Mississippi at Virginia Tech (-8.0)
Andy Kennedy has built a solid squad in the Deep South, and The Rebels are a deeper, more physical team. But they are terrible on the road. Ole Miss went 1-7 as the visiting team in SEC play. V Tech only lost two home games all year, both in conference play. Advantage, Hokies. They win by 10.
Bradley at Virginia (-6.5)
This one we're giving lock status; take the money-line, I don't need the points. The Bradley Braves are going to win this outright. UVA is not a good team. They went 5-11 in conference, and though they somehow beat Arizona early on in the regular season, their second best win was a lucky two-point victory at Georgia Tech. Bradley beat Drake twice, and just beat up two Ohiotucky schools, UC and Ohio, to make it to the CBI semis. In comparison, The Cavs barely got by Richmond and Old Dominion. Bet the farm on the Braves, kids!
Hope you'll stop by tomorrow, we'll check the lines of the Big Dance.
-A.B.
Honestly, I wasn't as confident with these NCAA Basketball picks as I was with my Ohiotucky picks on Monday. Just hoping to go on a roll, and I'm running out of time on my quest to break even. So I'm going with the following prognostications, the latter I like more than the former.
Mississippi at Virginia Tech (-8.0)
Andy Kennedy has built a solid squad in the Deep South, and The Rebels are a deeper, more physical team. But they are terrible on the road. Ole Miss went 1-7 as the visiting team in SEC play. V Tech only lost two home games all year, both in conference play. Advantage, Hokies. They win by 10.
Bradley at Virginia (-6.5)
This one we're giving lock status; take the money-line, I don't need the points. The Bradley Braves are going to win this outright. UVA is not a good team. They went 5-11 in conference, and though they somehow beat Arizona early on in the regular season, their second best win was a lucky two-point victory at Georgia Tech. Bradley beat Drake twice, and just beat up two Ohiotucky schools, UC and Ohio, to make it to the CBI semis. In comparison, The Cavs barely got by Richmond and Old Dominion. Bet the farm on the Braves, kids!
Hope you'll stop by tomorrow, we'll check the lines of the Big Dance.
-A.B.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Perusing the Lines: 03.24.08
A lotta love from the Ohiotucky yesterday. Ohio State blew the doors off Cal, and Dayton beat the spread by 13. That's puts this season's NCAA Basketball prognosticating record at 25-27-2. Let's see if we can get to .500.
Massachusetts @ Syracuse (-7.5 Sportsbook.com)
We're going with experience over size. Two of the Minutemen's three leading scorer's are seniors, led by Gary Forbes near 20 points a game. Two of the Orange's three leading scorer's are freshman, and both are over 6-9. Donte Greene, at 6-11, is averaging 17.7/7.1, and will need to be double-teamed if UMass has a chance. They don't have to stop him, just contain him.
These two teams met previously in a serious shoot-out, with UMass prevailing 107-100. But this was early in the season, and both teams have rolled upon some rocky roads since then. The Minutemen will once again try to instill this tempo to counter the size deficiency, and though they may not prevail, I think the senior leadership keeps this close. A least I hope so. Maryland sure couldn't do it, losing by 14 at the Carrier Dome last Thursday. And their roster looks identical to the Minutemen. And Pomeroy has UMass 10 slots below the Terps, and 'Cuse +25? Wait a minute...
I'm flip-flopping. The Orange by 10. Screw experience.
Florida @ Arizona State (-3.5)
I hate to bet against the Gators, for purely personal reasons. The Drunken Prophet wants to see the Buckeyes whip them again this season. The revenge doesn't nearly make up for the two National Championship shellackings put on The OSU, but it makes me feel better.
But I can't bet against Herb Sendek at home. The first year coach has willed the Sun Devils to their first respectable season in years, and they have something to prove. Both teams feature young talent, but the duo of James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph should take care of the Gators in Tempe. ASU by 6.
Check back with y'all tomorrow-A.B.
Massachusetts @ Syracuse (-7.5 Sportsbook.com)
We're going with experience over size. Two of the Minutemen's three leading scorer's are seniors, led by Gary Forbes near 20 points a game. Two of the Orange's three leading scorer's are freshman, and both are over 6-9. Donte Greene, at 6-11, is averaging 17.7/7.1, and will need to be double-teamed if UMass has a chance. They don't have to stop him, just contain him.
These two teams met previously in a serious shoot-out, with UMass prevailing 107-100. But this was early in the season, and both teams have rolled upon some rocky roads since then. The Minutemen will once again try to instill this tempo to counter the size deficiency, and though they may not prevail, I think the senior leadership keeps this close. A least I hope so. Maryland sure couldn't do it, losing by 14 at the Carrier Dome last Thursday. And their roster looks identical to the Minutemen. And Pomeroy has UMass 10 slots below the Terps, and 'Cuse +25? Wait a minute...
I'm flip-flopping. The Orange by 10. Screw experience.
Florida @ Arizona State (-3.5)
I hate to bet against the Gators, for purely personal reasons. The Drunken Prophet wants to see the Buckeyes whip them again this season. The revenge doesn't nearly make up for the two National Championship shellackings put on The OSU, but it makes me feel better.
But I can't bet against Herb Sendek at home. The first year coach has willed the Sun Devils to their first respectable season in years, and they have something to prove. Both teams feature young talent, but the duo of James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph should take care of the Gators in Tempe. ASU by 6.
Check back with y'all tomorrow-A.B.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Perusing the Lines: 03.23.08
Once again I must apologize for my lack of attentiveness to the blog. Between fantasy baseball drafts, the Denver County Sheriff Department(they towed my truck, those bastards. Too long of an ugly story for here) and getting drunk and watching my NCAA Tourney bracket fall to pieces, I just haven't been getting around to typing.
###
So let's begin by getting this NCAA Basketball regular season over with. My last picks were two Thursdays ago (oh, and throw St. Patty's weekend in to my list of excuses), and my slump continued. Mountaineers took out UConn, the Cardinal did as expected, and my gut check Ohiotucky match-up went to the Redhawks. Hence, 23-27-2. This is why you don't gamble kids, unless you have money to burn. Or you're smarter/luckier than me.
But I'm on a mission: to return to .500. That mission begins today.
###
Yes Virginia (Tech), they are playing basketball on this fine Monday. Two Ohiotucky teams are in the NIT mix, and The Drunken Prophet likes them both:
California @ Ohio State (-7.0 MGM)
Since I can find no quality info on this match-up, we'll dig some up. First off, Cal was a pretty weak team this year, going 6-12 in Pac-10 play, and finishing with an RPI of 92, 53 spots below the Buckeyes. The Golden Bears do have a young stud in sophmore Ryan Anderson (6-10/240), and a couple of decent scorers at the guard position. But the offensive drop-off after that is dramatic.
This Buckeye squad as well lacks true depth, but they do have a more dominant starting five, and a few more options off the bench. This will be a true test for Koufos, who is matched up with Cal senior DeVon Hardin (6-11/250). He'll need to hit from the outside to keep the Golden Bears big-man out of the lane, allowing Lighty, Turner and Butler to attack the basket, and set up open looks for each other. Defensively, the Big KK will need help from Othello, and the under-appreciated Terwilliger, while they try to contain the aforementioned Anderson. But as long as our guards out-play Cal's, I think The OSU is in good shape
What may make the difference is a bit suprising, but explained well by the Buckeye's basketball blog of the Columbus Dispatch. Even though only 7000+ showed up for the opening round game, they were rowdy. Turns out these are the die-hard fans who dwell in the 400 sections, and this is their first opportunity to get up close to the action. Assuming the same this evening, the home-court edge should be tremendous. And let's not forget the chance for some more payback against Florida, who has made it to the Semi's.
Not to mention, if you were a kid living in Berkeley, after suffering through an average season, do you really care about a relatively meaningless game in Columbus? Buckeyes by 10.
Dayton @ Illinois State (-6.5 MGM)
Not a lot of time left to type, but I like the 61/2, and I like Wright! Freshman phenom Chris Wright will be back in action tonight, and I think he'll provide enough to cover the spread. The Flyers and Redbirds are 32 and 33 in the RPI, so the numbers say this should be close. Both are smallerish teams, with Dayton having a small advantage on the average of boards and points scored. Illinois State takes much better care of the ball, and forces on average 2.0 more turnovers per game. Hence, if Dayton can secure possessions and stay solid on D, they've got a shot at the upset.
###
Hopefully, I'll get back to y'all on the flip-A.B.
###
So let's begin by getting this NCAA Basketball regular season over with. My last picks were two Thursdays ago (oh, and throw St. Patty's weekend in to my list of excuses), and my slump continued. Mountaineers took out UConn, the Cardinal did as expected, and my gut check Ohiotucky match-up went to the Redhawks. Hence, 23-27-2. This is why you don't gamble kids, unless you have money to burn. Or you're smarter/luckier than me.
But I'm on a mission: to return to .500. That mission begins today.
###
Yes Virginia (Tech), they are playing basketball on this fine Monday. Two Ohiotucky teams are in the NIT mix, and The Drunken Prophet likes them both:
California @ Ohio State (-7.0 MGM)
Since I can find no quality info on this match-up, we'll dig some up. First off, Cal was a pretty weak team this year, going 6-12 in Pac-10 play, and finishing with an RPI of 92, 53 spots below the Buckeyes. The Golden Bears do have a young stud in sophmore Ryan Anderson (6-10/240), and a couple of decent scorers at the guard position. But the offensive drop-off after that is dramatic.
This Buckeye squad as well lacks true depth, but they do have a more dominant starting five, and a few more options off the bench. This will be a true test for Koufos, who is matched up with Cal senior DeVon Hardin (6-11/250). He'll need to hit from the outside to keep the Golden Bears big-man out of the lane, allowing Lighty, Turner and Butler to attack the basket, and set up open looks for each other. Defensively, the Big KK will need help from Othello, and the under-appreciated Terwilliger, while they try to contain the aforementioned Anderson. But as long as our guards out-play Cal's, I think The OSU is in good shape
What may make the difference is a bit suprising, but explained well by the Buckeye's basketball blog of the Columbus Dispatch. Even though only 7000+ showed up for the opening round game, they were rowdy. Turns out these are the die-hard fans who dwell in the 400 sections, and this is their first opportunity to get up close to the action. Assuming the same this evening, the home-court edge should be tremendous. And let's not forget the chance for some more payback against Florida, who has made it to the Semi's.
Not to mention, if you were a kid living in Berkeley, after suffering through an average season, do you really care about a relatively meaningless game in Columbus? Buckeyes by 10.
Dayton @ Illinois State (-6.5 MGM)
Not a lot of time left to type, but I like the 61/2, and I like Wright! Freshman phenom Chris Wright will be back in action tonight, and I think he'll provide enough to cover the spread. The Flyers and Redbirds are 32 and 33 in the RPI, so the numbers say this should be close. Both are smallerish teams, with Dayton having a small advantage on the average of boards and points scored. Illinois State takes much better care of the ball, and forces on average 2.0 more turnovers per game. Hence, if Dayton can secure possessions and stay solid on D, they've got a shot at the upset.
###
Hopefully, I'll get back to y'all on the flip-A.B.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Perusing the Lines: Championship Week 03/13/08
This is where it starts to get good, kids. NCAA basketball conference tourneys are now in full swing, and the action is aplenty. But what do the V-Boys have to offer to improve my record of 22-25-2? We're truly perusing the spreads, since there are some interesting variations between the various lines posted on the Vegas Insider site.
West Virginia vs. Connecticut (-2.0 MGM Mirage)
I'm using the closest spread available since I'm picking the favorite. UConn has been on a serious roll, winning 13 of their last 15, and is a hot sleeper to make a run to the Elite Eight. WVU has been the epitome of inconsistency this season, especially that 62-39 loss to my pathetic Bearcats. The Mountaineers have probably won enough to get a seat at the table (and get beat in the first round of the Tourney), but I guarantee Huggins isn't letting his team believe the hype. But motivation only gets you so far. The Huskies have superior talent, and you have to give Calhoun the nod as far as in-game adjustments. I hate betting against Huggy-Bear, but I think it's going to be next year, when his recruits show up, that the Mountaineers really make some noise.
Arizona vs. Stanford (-2.5 Ceasers)
I'm taking the favorite once again. Those two twins should make this game tough for the Wildcats underneath the boards, and unless Arizona makes some serious shots from the perimeter, this game could get ugly. The Cardinal had been playing with a chip on its beak, until they got swept by the LA institutions. UA lost a much needed game to the Ducks to remain squarely on the bubble despite their number one SOS. Hence both are hungry, I just gotta go with the bigs in this one.
###
And let's pick the Ohiotucky match-up of the day. Wait, Xavier already defeated Dayton. So how about some MAC action...
Ohio vs. Miami (OH) (-1.5 LV Hilton)
Straight Gut Call. Both teams are as evenly matched as their conference records (9-7). The illustrious Pomeroy has the Redhawks 12 points higher in his rankings. But I like the Bobcats, and this is strickly based on their Bracketbuster performance I witnessed against George Mason, and the fact they have a skinny white boy named Bubba as their third leading scorer.
Talk to you all tomorrow-A.B.
West Virginia vs. Connecticut (-2.0 MGM Mirage)
I'm using the closest spread available since I'm picking the favorite. UConn has been on a serious roll, winning 13 of their last 15, and is a hot sleeper to make a run to the Elite Eight. WVU has been the epitome of inconsistency this season, especially that 62-39 loss to my pathetic Bearcats. The Mountaineers have probably won enough to get a seat at the table (and get beat in the first round of the Tourney), but I guarantee Huggins isn't letting his team believe the hype. But motivation only gets you so far. The Huskies have superior talent, and you have to give Calhoun the nod as far as in-game adjustments. I hate betting against Huggy-Bear, but I think it's going to be next year, when his recruits show up, that the Mountaineers really make some noise.
Arizona vs. Stanford (-2.5 Ceasers)
I'm taking the favorite once again. Those two twins should make this game tough for the Wildcats underneath the boards, and unless Arizona makes some serious shots from the perimeter, this game could get ugly. The Cardinal had been playing with a chip on its beak, until they got swept by the LA institutions. UA lost a much needed game to the Ducks to remain squarely on the bubble despite their number one SOS. Hence both are hungry, I just gotta go with the bigs in this one.
###
And let's pick the Ohiotucky match-up of the day. Wait, Xavier already defeated Dayton. So how about some MAC action...
Ohio vs. Miami (OH) (-1.5 LV Hilton)
Straight Gut Call. Both teams are as evenly matched as their conference records (9-7). The illustrious Pomeroy has the Redhawks 12 points higher in his rankings. But I like the Bobcats, and this is strickly based on their Bracketbuster performance I witnessed against George Mason, and the fact they have a skinny white boy named Bubba as their third leading scorer.
Talk to you all tomorrow-A.B.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Purusing the Lines:03/012/08: Championship Week
No love from the V-Boys. I've scrolled up and down the spreads and no line feels like the real thing. I want to believe Cincy won't lose by 9, and that Cal should beat UW by more than 2. You'd hope the pathetic Beavers wouldn't lose by 19, and Miami (OH) could take care of Buffalo by 10. But I hate all this action if I'm placing money on the barrel.
So let's take a look at yesterday's picks...
###
Cleveland State broke my heart, and bank account, with the 15 point loss to Butler. But you can't prognosticate injuries, and the loss of Cedric Jackson for the second half cost me the spread. Jackson was (and we have to use the past tense, 'cause there is no chance CSU breaks the bubble, even though they showed up second in a very prominsing Horizon league) the Vikings second leading scorer and rebounder. That's easily five points lost right there. That's why they call it gambling.
Western Kentucky took care of business, gaining the Sun Belt Auto-bid, a chance to take on a three-seed that will probably destroy them, and at least getting me to .500 on the day. I wish the best for the Hilltoppers, but a run in the NCAA Basketball tourney is not expected by the Prophet. But keep an eye on Southern Alabam'. If they get matched up with a run-and-gun teams (aka Duke in the second round), the Jags may play in the Sweet Sixteen
So let's take a look at yesterday's picks...
###
Cleveland State broke my heart, and bank account, with the 15 point loss to Butler. But you can't prognosticate injuries, and the loss of Cedric Jackson for the second half cost me the spread. Jackson was (and we have to use the past tense, 'cause there is no chance CSU breaks the bubble, even though they showed up second in a very prominsing Horizon league) the Vikings second leading scorer and rebounder. That's easily five points lost right there. That's why they call it gambling.
Western Kentucky took care of business, gaining the Sun Belt Auto-bid, a chance to take on a three-seed that will probably destroy them, and at least getting me to .500 on the day. I wish the best for the Hilltoppers, but a run in the NCAA Basketball tourney is not expected by the Prophet. But keep an eye on Southern Alabam'. If they get matched up with a run-and-gun teams (aka Duke in the second round), the Jags may play in the Sweet Sixteen
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Butler vs. Cleveland State: 03/11/08
No tunes today. We're listening to the Reds on Radio. Pre-season game against Houston. Down three in the eighth. Not looking good. But the lines I was hoping for are...
Butler (-10.0) vs. Cleveland State (Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN)
That's the spread we were looking for kids! The Vikings beat the Bulldogs by four at home, and lost by five on the road. Cleveland State is playing for it's NCAA Tourney lives; Butler will play comfortably numb due to it's apparent lock status. The ESPN boys are focusing on rebound differential, which I believe is notable, but doesn't tell the whole story.
Short, abbreviated sentences, now there's the ticket.
This should be close game. Butler lost last year in this same situation against a "who the hell would have thunk it" Wright State squad. I'll give them the benefit of the talent bump, but not by ten.
Western Kentucky (-8.5) vs. Middle Tennessee State (Mitchell Center, Mobile, AL)
The scary thing: the best match-up info I found was from Eyewitness News 3 out of Connecticut (?). The Blue Raiders may pull a San Diego State style upset after knocking off Southern Alabam', but the regular season numbers are not amicable. MTS did beat Southern Alabama twice in the regular season, and finished them off with the tourney upset. However they lost to WKU in both meeting, by 5 at home and 11 on the road. The Gut is telling me the Hilltoppers do not fock around, and close this thing out by halftime. WKU by 18.
We'll talk to ya tomorrow-A.B.
Butler (-10.0) vs. Cleveland State (Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN)
That's the spread we were looking for kids! The Vikings beat the Bulldogs by four at home, and lost by five on the road. Cleveland State is playing for it's NCAA Tourney lives; Butler will play comfortably numb due to it's apparent lock status. The ESPN boys are focusing on rebound differential, which I believe is notable, but doesn't tell the whole story.
Short, abbreviated sentences, now there's the ticket.
This should be close game. Butler lost last year in this same situation against a "who the hell would have thunk it" Wright State squad. I'll give them the benefit of the talent bump, but not by ten.
Western Kentucky (-8.5) vs. Middle Tennessee State (Mitchell Center, Mobile, AL)
The scary thing: the best match-up info I found was from Eyewitness News 3 out of Connecticut (?). The Blue Raiders may pull a San Diego State style upset after knocking off Southern Alabam', but the regular season numbers are not amicable. MTS did beat Southern Alabama twice in the regular season, and finished them off with the tourney upset. However they lost to WKU in both meeting, by 5 at home and 11 on the road. The Gut is telling me the Hilltoppers do not fock around, and close this thing out by halftime. WKU by 18.
We'll talk to ya tomorrow-A.B.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Champ Week Begins!! 03/10/08
Howdy folks!
First off, for some quality jamming, check out this Bluegrass Underground show. Mike Gordon is featured on a couple of tracks. Hot stuff, but it is one of the original SugarMegs Real Audio files, so you can only listen to it with Real Player.
##
Sorry about the hiatus. My first Fantasy Baseball draft of the season was Saturday, and I was preparing the days prior. And yesterday I was just being lazy.
No quality NCAA basketball action this evening, though Gonzaga/San Diego should be a great match-up. I would have picked the Zags (-7.0) until I watched last night's WCC semi-final. San Diego might have left everything on the floor getting the victory over St. Mary's, but I wouldn't bet on in.
###
So let's recap the end of my disaster last week.
Baylor got crushed at home to down-trodden Texas A&M, dropping my season total to 21-24-2. I think this AP sentence says it all: "The Bears, the Big 12's second-best 3-point shooting team, went 4-for-19 from long range and shot 21-for-63 (a season-low 33 percent) overall". They went on to mention that according to Bear's officials, this was the first time no player on a team scored in double figures since the introduction of the shot clock.
Maybe I'm not the one that is cursed, but I'm cursing the teams I'm picking. Well we won't find out tonight, but maybe tomorrow when the line comes out on Butler/Cleveland St. I'll certainly be returning to some serious prognostication once the big-boy tournaments get rolling Wednesday.
adios-A.B.
First off, for some quality jamming, check out this Bluegrass Underground show. Mike Gordon is featured on a couple of tracks. Hot stuff, but it is one of the original SugarMegs Real Audio files, so you can only listen to it with Real Player.
##
Sorry about the hiatus. My first Fantasy Baseball draft of the season was Saturday, and I was preparing the days prior. And yesterday I was just being lazy.
No quality NCAA basketball action this evening, though Gonzaga/San Diego should be a great match-up. I would have picked the Zags (-7.0) until I watched last night's WCC semi-final. San Diego might have left everything on the floor getting the victory over St. Mary's, but I wouldn't bet on in.
###
So let's recap the end of my disaster last week.
Baylor got crushed at home to down-trodden Texas A&M, dropping my season total to 21-24-2. I think this AP sentence says it all: "The Bears, the Big 12's second-best 3-point shooting team, went 4-for-19 from long range and shot 21-for-63 (a season-low 33 percent) overall". They went on to mention that according to Bear's officials, this was the first time no player on a team scored in double figures since the introduction of the shot clock.
Maybe I'm not the one that is cursed, but I'm cursing the teams I'm picking. Well we won't find out tonight, but maybe tomorrow when the line comes out on Butler/Cleveland St. I'll certainly be returning to some serious prognostication once the big-boy tournaments get rolling Wednesday.
adios-A.B.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Purusing the Lines:03/05/08
Boy, I'm on a roll. The NCAA Basketball gods have not been kind of late.
Yesterday's lone pick might have been my worst ever. Bowling Green was destroyed by freakin' Buffalo by 46 points! So we're now sitting at 21-23-2. That's not how we're going to go out.
But I accept the fact that the Senior Night curse has been put upon me. I like Kentucky, Tennessee and Duke in tonight's action, but I know when a spell has been cast to destroy my season record (I am a Prophet lest you forget). So let's pick the only home team I'm reasonably comfortable with...
Texas A&M @ Baylor (-1.5)
Let's pray the home-team heroics that have stricken my roadie record will work for me in Waco. A&M has been shelled on the road on their last two trips, losing by 27 at Texas and Oklahoma.
Both teams are playing for their Tourney lives, so this should be a hard fought contest. I'll give the Bears the nod, winning by 7.
###
My first fantasy baseball draft is Saturday, so I may not be blogging the next couple of days as I prepare my projections and cheatsheets. Unless there's a play I gotta take, then I'll let ya know.
adios-A.B.
Yesterday's lone pick might have been my worst ever. Bowling Green was destroyed by freakin' Buffalo by 46 points! So we're now sitting at 21-23-2. That's not how we're going to go out.
But I accept the fact that the Senior Night curse has been put upon me. I like Kentucky, Tennessee and Duke in tonight's action, but I know when a spell has been cast to destroy my season record (I am a Prophet lest you forget). So let's pick the only home team I'm reasonably comfortable with...
Texas A&M @ Baylor (-1.5)
Let's pray the home-team heroics that have stricken my roadie record will work for me in Waco. A&M has been shelled on the road on their last two trips, losing by 27 at Texas and Oklahoma.
Both teams are playing for their Tourney lives, so this should be a hard fought contest. I'll give the Bears the nod, winning by 7.
###
My first fantasy baseball draft is Saturday, so I may not be blogging the next couple of days as I prepare my projections and cheatsheets. Unless there's a play I gotta take, then I'll let ya know.
adios-A.B.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Purusing the Lines:03/04/08
We need to cheer ourselves up after yesterday's prognosticating debacle. Which is best achieved with a Bluegrass band featuring a female vocalist and wicked Dobro player.
###
So how 'bout that butt-whoopin' placed on T-Tech by the Jayhawks? Lord knows Kansas has the weapons, I just didn't think they'd beat them down like that! Should have have got a clue from the Red Raiders pathetic attempt at pretending to be a basketball team at A&M (98-54), rather than look at their upset of Texas.
Pitt certainly stumbled big-time as well, and my gut was equally shocked to see this box-score. To be honest, I don't even want to talk about it. Let's just give Coach Huggins & Co. their props, and let them know I'm rooting for them the rest of the way.
Dropping below the .500 line for the first time this season, I'm going to be taking some conservative action the rest of the week. Let's see what we got...
Bowling Green @ Buffalo (-2.5)
I'm reaching deep into the MAC and taking the Falcons on the road in this one. The Bulls have only won two in conference, and though this is their Senior Night (my new-favorite nemesis), they've only got one senior, Andrew Atma, who hasn't done much even though he is a seven-footer. BGSU is coming off a possible bubble-busting win over Kent State, but you guessed it, it was their Senior Night. I'm simply picking the better team here when given the points.
And that's it. I looked at Ohiotucky's matches tonight, but I can't bet for or against the Buckeyes. I believe Miami (OH) will lose by six against Kent State, but the Golden Flashes have played a couple of close ones at home as of late. I'll also be watching ex-Ohiotucky coach Herb Sendek and his new New Mexico squad, but UNLV might straight run them up the pole.
So let's see if we can get back to even.
late-A.B.
###
So how 'bout that butt-whoopin' placed on T-Tech by the Jayhawks? Lord knows Kansas has the weapons, I just didn't think they'd beat them down like that! Should have have got a clue from the Red Raiders pathetic attempt at pretending to be a basketball team at A&M (98-54), rather than look at their upset of Texas.
Pitt certainly stumbled big-time as well, and my gut was equally shocked to see this box-score. To be honest, I don't even want to talk about it. Let's just give Coach Huggins & Co. their props, and let them know I'm rooting for them the rest of the way.
Dropping below the .500 line for the first time this season, I'm going to be taking some conservative action the rest of the week. Let's see what we got...
Bowling Green @ Buffalo (-2.5)
I'm reaching deep into the MAC and taking the Falcons on the road in this one. The Bulls have only won two in conference, and though this is their Senior Night (my new-favorite nemesis), they've only got one senior, Andrew Atma, who hasn't done much even though he is a seven-footer. BGSU is coming off a possible bubble-busting win over Kent State, but you guessed it, it was their Senior Night. I'm simply picking the better team here when given the points.
And that's it. I looked at Ohiotucky's matches tonight, but I can't bet for or against the Buckeyes. I believe Miami (OH) will lose by six against Kent State, but the Golden Flashes have played a couple of close ones at home as of late. I'll also be watching ex-Ohiotucky coach Herb Sendek and his new New Mexico squad, but UNLV might straight run them up the pole.
So let's see if we can get back to even.
late-A.B.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Purusing the Lines:03.03.08
Sunday 'Cap
My poor Bearcats. My poor, poor Bearcats. I know they're not a good team by any stretch of the imagination. But come on, losing at home to Providence?
The Friars were suffering through a five game losing streak, had lost 9 of their past 10 games, and had only won twice on the road all season (though one of those wins was an impressive show at UConn). If Cincy can't handle a team such as this at Fifth Third Arena, they ain't got a prayer of stealing a game in the Big East tourney. Bearcat nation, we'll chat next fall.
I offer similar regards to the UK faithful. With Patterson out, a run to the SEC final seems impossible. But the conference is weaker than the Big East this year, and it wouldn't completely surprise me to see a rematch with Tennessee in the semis. If they could pull that off in Atlanta, an auto-bid would be within reach.
At least the Wildcats beat the spread, keeping me hovering above .500 at 21-20-3. There are a couple of games I'm tempted by this evening...
Pittsburg @ West Virginia (-5.5)
It's the Mountaineers' Senior Night, and Huggy-Bear will have his team primed. But I don't like their chances to cover the spread. Pittsburg hasn't been strong on the road, losing their last three. But all of those losses have been against top teams in the Big East. West Virgina has built it's resume by defeating the weaker of the conference. Their only quality win was against Marquette early in league play. Actually, the only team Pitt has taken out above .500 in the Big East is Georgetown. Welp, blows that argument.
So we'll call this a gut call. Both teams are evenly matched, and are playing for tourney consideration. Home court advantage obviously goes to WVU, but I say this one ends with a buzzer-beater. Mountaineers by 2.
Texas Tech @ Kansas (-19.5)
Let's call upon my new-favorite mantra: too many points. Kansas doesn't need to win this by twenty. Coach Self will call off the dogs (aka Jayhawks) nursing a comfortable lead with six minutes left. Or Tech goes into this with some confidence after stunning rival Texas, and actually keeps this fairly close. History is not on my side in this prediction. According to LLC Stats, "Texas Tech has never won in nine trips to Lawrence, losing its last five visits by an average of 28.8 points." But I'm banking the Red Raiders are buying into "Baby-Knight-Ball", the run-and-gun style which took out the Longhorns. Won't work, but keeps them under the spread. KU by 15.
More picks on the flip-A.B.
My poor Bearcats. My poor, poor Bearcats. I know they're not a good team by any stretch of the imagination. But come on, losing at home to Providence?
The Friars were suffering through a five game losing streak, had lost 9 of their past 10 games, and had only won twice on the road all season (though one of those wins was an impressive show at UConn). If Cincy can't handle a team such as this at Fifth Third Arena, they ain't got a prayer of stealing a game in the Big East tourney. Bearcat nation, we'll chat next fall.
I offer similar regards to the UK faithful. With Patterson out, a run to the SEC final seems impossible. But the conference is weaker than the Big East this year, and it wouldn't completely surprise me to see a rematch with Tennessee in the semis. If they could pull that off in Atlanta, an auto-bid would be within reach.
At least the Wildcats beat the spread, keeping me hovering above .500 at 21-20-3. There are a couple of games I'm tempted by this evening...
Pittsburg @ West Virginia (-5.5)
It's the Mountaineers' Senior Night, and Huggy-Bear will have his team primed. But I don't like their chances to cover the spread. Pittsburg hasn't been strong on the road, losing their last three. But all of those losses have been against top teams in the Big East. West Virgina has built it's resume by defeating the weaker of the conference. Their only quality win was against Marquette early in league play. Actually, the only team Pitt has taken out above .500 in the Big East is Georgetown. Welp, blows that argument.
So we'll call this a gut call. Both teams are evenly matched, and are playing for tourney consideration. Home court advantage obviously goes to WVU, but I say this one ends with a buzzer-beater. Mountaineers by 2.
Texas Tech @ Kansas (-19.5)
Let's call upon my new-favorite mantra: too many points. Kansas doesn't need to win this by twenty. Coach Self will call off the dogs (aka Jayhawks) nursing a comfortable lead with six minutes left. Or Tech goes into this with some confidence after stunning rival Texas, and actually keeps this fairly close. History is not on my side in this prediction. According to LLC Stats, "Texas Tech has never won in nine trips to Lawrence, losing its last five visits by an average of 28.8 points." But I'm banking the Red Raiders are buying into "Baby-Knight-Ball", the run-and-gun style which took out the Longhorns. Won't work, but keeps them under the spread. KU by 15.
More picks on the flip-A.B.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Saturday 'Cap/Ohiotucky's Sunday picks
1-3 yesterday puts a tear in the eye, especially after my Wednesday sweep.
Ohio State played typical Buckeye ball, and certainly doesn't deserve a Tourney seat.
Beasley did all he could, but Kansas was just too tough. What kind of game would MB have had if he hadn't gotten into early foul trouble (or if Huggy-bear was still coach?)? The V-Boys know their game, suckering me by a point.
And then there's LaSalle. Hopped on that bandwagon right as it was careening into the canyon. I initially liked the Rams, but the stats swayed me away. Should have stuck with the gut.
So my lone winner, them Baylor Bears, held court and kept me above .500. Bookmark my words: this is a Tourney team, and is either a first round wither, or an elite eight enigma. They got nothing to lose, so they might toss it all in the trash, or make a serious run. If their shooters stay hot, make news in the B-12 Tourney, score a decent seed in the Big Dance, and get match-ups against teams they can outscore (aka: don't need to play defense//a Big Ten muscle-team), the Bears are gonna go on a run and get beat in the game deciding the Final Four.
###
As for the Sunday Action, let's pretend we don't learn lessons:
Providence @ Cincinnati (-5.0)
The Friars are on a five game losing skid (didn't I just type this? and Rhode Island won?) I think Cincy has a decent shot of covering the spread against Providence. The Bearcats are now playing for an NIT seed, which isn't a complete insult for Cronin's squad. The Big East is tough, and it may be awhile/forever until Cincy reclaims it's status as an annual 1 of 64/65 invitee. But the Friars are on a five game losing skid (didn't I just type this? and Rhode Island won?) and won't have any punch. Cincy by 10.
Kentucky @ Tennessee (-14.5)
"Too many points, kids; too many points." This was yesterday's quote concerning the Kansas-K-State game. Well, I don't like this spread either. UK lost stud forward Patrick Patterson, and ain't gonna win in Knoxville. But I'm susceptible to this teasing by the V-Boys, and can't let 15 points go unchecked. The Vol's by 12.
Be back Tuesday at the latest-A.B.
Ohio State played typical Buckeye ball, and certainly doesn't deserve a Tourney seat.
Beasley did all he could, but Kansas was just too tough. What kind of game would MB have had if he hadn't gotten into early foul trouble (or if Huggy-bear was still coach?)? The V-Boys know their game, suckering me by a point.
And then there's LaSalle. Hopped on that bandwagon right as it was careening into the canyon. I initially liked the Rams, but the stats swayed me away. Should have stuck with the gut.
So my lone winner, them Baylor Bears, held court and kept me above .500. Bookmark my words: this is a Tourney team, and is either a first round wither, or an elite eight enigma. They got nothing to lose, so they might toss it all in the trash, or make a serious run. If their shooters stay hot, make news in the B-12 Tourney, score a decent seed in the Big Dance, and get match-ups against teams they can outscore (aka: don't need to play defense//a Big Ten muscle-team), the Bears are gonna go on a run and get beat in the game deciding the Final Four.
###
As for the Sunday Action, let's pretend we don't learn lessons:
Providence @ Cincinnati (-5.0)
The Friars are on a five game losing skid (didn't I just type this? and Rhode Island won?) I think Cincy has a decent shot of covering the spread against Providence. The Bearcats are now playing for an NIT seed, which isn't a complete insult for Cronin's squad. The Big East is tough, and it may be awhile/forever until Cincy reclaims it's status as an annual 1 of 64/65 invitee. But the Friars are on a five game losing skid (didn't I just type this? and Rhode Island won?) and won't have any punch. Cincy by 10.
Kentucky @ Tennessee (-14.5)
"Too many points, kids; too many points." This was yesterday's quote concerning the Kansas-K-State game. Well, I don't like this spread either. UK lost stud forward Patrick Patterson, and ain't gonna win in Knoxville. But I'm susceptible to this teasing by the V-Boys, and can't let 15 points go unchecked. The Vol's by 12.
Be back Tuesday at the latest-A.B.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Weekend Action: 03/01/08
Let's get to the picks directly, as I'm running late this fine morning.
Rhode Island (-1.0) @ LaSalle
We're going with the home team, as the Explorer's have rattled off five wins in a row, while the Rams have dropped their last five. LaSalle's home record (5-5) is sketchy, but they are amazingly in contention for a second seed in the A-10. The Rhody's, once mentioned as one of the conference's four possible bids, have simply lost it. The last defeat, an 85-68 whoopin' at suckerfish George Washington, is their latest example of impotence. Rhode Island will still be slipping down the slide once this one is done.
Ohio State @ Minnesota (-2.5)
This battle for the fifth-seed in the Big Ten tourney will hinge on the Buckeyes big-boy Kosta Koufas. If G Butler can find his man in the middle consistently, I like Ohio State's chances. It's about time for some "Matta Magic", and I believe the Coach will will his team to a very winnable game, even if it is on the road. The Gophers haven't beaten a decent team at home, and I don't think Tubby's club will do so today.
Missouri @ Baylor (-5.5)
Let's hop back on the Baylor bandwagon. The Tigers lone two road wins, both in conference, were fairly close (66-62 @ Colorado, 86-78 OT @ Nebraska). The Bears need a statement win against an average Big 12 foe, and this seems like the appropriate time. The line is a little heavy, but if Baylor is up half way through the second half, I envision them pouring it on, as opposed to laying low.
Kansas State @ Kansas (-13.0)
Too many points, kids; too many points. There is no way Michael Beasley let's this one get this far gone. K-State's freshman stud will take over the offense when necessary, and might fall short, but not by 13. He has some respectable help underneath the basket with Bill Walker, who will play up to his potential in this rivalry. The Jayhawks have smoked Big 12 competition consistently at the Phog, which is why the V-Boys have this line so high. But I foresee an MJ performance out of MB.
###
The Recap
Three-sweep baby! Richmond and Florida both took care of business, and Cincy kept it close enough to beat the spread. 19-16-3 going into the weekend suits me just fine.
Come back Monday to see how the weekend went-A.B.
Rhode Island (-1.0) @ LaSalle
We're going with the home team, as the Explorer's have rattled off five wins in a row, while the Rams have dropped their last five. LaSalle's home record (5-5) is sketchy, but they are amazingly in contention for a second seed in the A-10. The Rhody's, once mentioned as one of the conference's four possible bids, have simply lost it. The last defeat, an 85-68 whoopin' at suckerfish George Washington, is their latest example of impotence. Rhode Island will still be slipping down the slide once this one is done.
Ohio State @ Minnesota (-2.5)
This battle for the fifth-seed in the Big Ten tourney will hinge on the Buckeyes big-boy Kosta Koufas. If G Butler can find his man in the middle consistently, I like Ohio State's chances. It's about time for some "Matta Magic", and I believe the Coach will will his team to a very winnable game, even if it is on the road. The Gophers haven't beaten a decent team at home, and I don't think Tubby's club will do so today.
Missouri @ Baylor (-5.5)
Let's hop back on the Baylor bandwagon. The Tigers lone two road wins, both in conference, were fairly close (66-62 @ Colorado, 86-78 OT @ Nebraska). The Bears need a statement win against an average Big 12 foe, and this seems like the appropriate time. The line is a little heavy, but if Baylor is up half way through the second half, I envision them pouring it on, as opposed to laying low.
Kansas State @ Kansas (-13.0)
Too many points, kids; too many points. There is no way Michael Beasley let's this one get this far gone. K-State's freshman stud will take over the offense when necessary, and might fall short, but not by 13. He has some respectable help underneath the basket with Bill Walker, who will play up to his potential in this rivalry. The Jayhawks have smoked Big 12 competition consistently at the Phog, which is why the V-Boys have this line so high. But I foresee an MJ performance out of MB.
###
The Recap
Three-sweep baby! Richmond and Florida both took care of business, and Cincy kept it close enough to beat the spread. 19-16-3 going into the weekend suits me just fine.
Come back Monday to see how the weekend went-A.B.
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