Purusing the Lines:02/12/08

Some intriguing match-ups this Tuesday evening in the NCAA Basketball world, and I don't want a piece of any of them. Sorry kids, but the lines are not kind today.

So let's take a look at some of the match-ups and discuss why I would not lay a dime on them:


North Carolina (-8.5) @ Virginia

As noted by the ever-anonymous A.P., the 'Heels have been plagued by injuries at the point guard position. Is this enough to prevent N.C. from following Clemson's lead last Thursday, a 31 point dismantling of the lowly Cavaliers? I seriously doubt it. If threatened with eternal damnation unless I made a pick today, I'd give the nod to the 'Heels to cover the spread.
But, I'm more concerned about the "TOB".

TOB (Target on Back) theory contends that a team ranked high in the polls, or leading their particular NCAA basketball conference standings, is going to inspire their opponents to give it their best shot, lay it all on the line, leave everything on the court, insert your clique here. This is obviously not a unique epiphany, but I probably abide by it more than most.

Does the logic thus follow that you never bet on a TOB team? Never say never, but I try to shy away, especially when they are playing on the road. UVA has had it's "challenges" this season, especially in ACC play (1-8? poor bastards), but this is the classic nothing-left-to-lose scenario, and the Cav's just might keep it close through pride alone.

Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (-4.0)

Make or break for the Wildcats in my opinion if they still have dreams of dancing come March. But I can't bet against the Commodores unbeaten record at home. Vandy is ranked 65 slots higher in the RPI (12 to 87), but 20 slots lower in the magnificent Mr. Pomeroy's rankings (51 to 71). Face held in a toilet, I'll take UK with the points.

Michigan State @ Purdue (-1.5)

The war for Big-Ten supremacy (a.k.a. conference tourney seeding) begins this eve. Let's look at the serious battles remaining on the contender's schedules:

MSU: @Purdue (tonight of course), @ IU (2/16), @ WISC (2/28)
Purdue: vs. MSU (see above), @ IU (2/19), @ OSU (3/4)
Indiana: hosting WISC, MSU, PUR, OSU (2/13,16,19,26 respectively)
Wisconsin: @ IU (2/13), vs. OSU (2/23 or 2/24 dependent on TV execs), vs MSU (2/28)
Ohio State: figure it out from all of the above.

Point being, these teams are going beat the shit out of each other, setting up one helluva Big-Ten Tourney. The Vegas Boys will keep the lines on all of these games tight, and without a dominant force, I won't play any of this action.

But if my mother was held hostage by hippies who forced me to take an angle, I'd go Baby Boilermaker's by five. Nietzel hasn't been the weapon he was last season, and Izzo hasn't been able to coach confidence into his other nondescript employees.

Flip to my Lou friends- A.B.